April 5, 2018

Justin Huebner, Grain Division Manager Grain Commentary

Corn

CBOT Prices Two Rivers Cash Bid Prices
May ‘18 389’4 +8’4 Apr ‘18 341’0 +9’0
Jul ‘18 398’2 +8’4 May ‘18 347’0 +9’0
Sep ‘18 404’6 +8’0 June ‘18 346’0 +8’0
Dec ‘18 413’2 +8’2 NC ‘18 364’0 +8’0

 

Soybeans

CBOT Prices Two Rivers Cash Bid Prices
May ‘18 1031’2 +16’0 Apr ‘18 951’0 +19’0
Jul ‘18 1042’0 +15’4 May ‘18 954’0 +19’0
Aug ‘18 1043’4 +14’6 June ‘18 952’0 +13’0
Nov ‘18 1034’0 +15’0 NC ‘18 951’0 +15’0

 

Grain prices continued to rebound the day following the panic selling after Chinese tariff threats

Corn prices actually finished one cent above pre-tariff announcement

Corn export sales behind expectations for last week while soybeans were ahead of expectations

Both China and US officials have said they’re interested in negotiations over recent tariff threats

Non-China business interest has shifted to the US after Brazil basis values have shot higher

So the US may see an increase in soybean export business in the near term

China would only impose retaliatory tariffs in response to actual tariff implementation by the US

May 15 would be the absolute earliest the US could implement a tariff on Chinese goods

Final rebuttals will be due by May 22 on any disagreements with a May 15 decision

That gives Chinese buyers about 10 days to buy and ship soybeans ahead of the May 15 date

China simply can’t turn away from US soybeans, as Brazil can’t fulfill all China’s annual needs

April 5, 2018