August 5, 2015

Justin Huebner, Grain Division Manager Grain Commentary

Corn

CBOT Prices Two Rivers Cash Bid Prices
Sep ‘15 372’6 +4’0 Aug ‘15 350’0 +4’0
Dec ‘15 383’2 +4’4 FH Sep ‘15 350’0 +4’0
Mar ‘16 394’4 +4’6      
May ‘16 401’0 +5’0 NC ‘15 338’0 +4’0

Soybeans

CBOT Prices Two Rivers Cash Bid Prices
Aug ‘15 991’6 +15’6 Aug ‘15 974’0 +26’0
Sep ‘15 962’6 +14’0      
Nov ‘15 953’2 +11’0      
Jan ‘16 958’2 +10’4 NC ‘15 883’0 +11’0
  • Grain markets moving higher on extremely light volume. Lack of farmer cash movement possibly helping to support prices.
  • Pro Farmer Crop Tour begins August 17th.
  • U.S. weather forecast have turned warmer and quite drier over the next 2 weeks, supporting beans today since that weather comes at such a crucial time for bean development
  • Weekly ethanol production falling 0.41% from last week to 961,000 barrels per day.
  • Weekly ethanol stocks falling to 19.2 million barrels, versus 19.6 million barrels last week.
  • China ag ministry, commenting on a jump in domestic pork prices has proposed authorities cut state corn prices to help reduce costs and maintain reasonable margins for hog breeders.
  • This week we have seen private forecast of corn yield for 2015/16 range from 163.3 – 165.4. Soy yield estimates have ranged from 44.2-45.4
  • Informa left their US 2015 corn crop estimate near 13,412 mil bu vs USDA July est of 13,530. Yield of 165.4 vs USDA 166.8.
  • Informa also kept their US 2015 soybean crop estimate near 3,789 mil bu vs USDA July est of 3,885. Yield of 45.4 vs USDA July 46.0.
  • Inform US soybean acres are down 1.0 mil from USDA.
  • Informa raised World 2014 corn crop 2.5 mmt due to higher Brazil and Argentina crops.
  • Informa lowered World 2015 corn crop 2.4 mmt. Higher Brazil could not offset lower estimate of Argentina and EU.
  • Informa raised World 2015 wheat crop 1.5 mmt. This due to higher crops in Russia and US.
  • Informa left World 2015 soybean crop unchanged. Higher U.S. and Brazil offset a drop in Argentina.
  • FCStone released their corn yield at 165 bu/ac, producing a 13.381 billion bushel crop
  • FCStone bean yield was at 45 bu/ac, producing a 3.797 billion bushel crop
August 5, 2015