December 16, 2015

Corn

CBOT Prices Two Rivers Cash Bid Prices
Mar ‘16 369’6 -7’4 Dec ‘15 340’0 -7’0
May ‘16 375’2 -7’0 Jan ‘16 340’0 -7’0
Jul ‘16 380’4 -6’6 Feb ‘16 342’0 -7’0
Sep ‘16 384’0 -6’6 Mar ‘16 344’0 -8’0

 

Soybeans

CBOT Prices Two Rivers Cash Bid Prices
Jan ‘16 862’4 -4’6 Dec ‘15 811’0 -4’0
Mar ‘16 863’2 -4’4 Jan ‘16 808’0 -5’0
May ‘16 869’0 -4’4 Feb ‘16 808’0 -5’0
Jul ‘16 875’2 -4’6 Mar ‘16 808’0 -4’0

 

The equity rally strengthened into the close, crude down sharply & the dollar fell after the Fed announcement

Moderate losses in the oilseeds and grains have been extended, led by wheat

Wheat pressured on new short positions after recent short-covering rally

Bearish news includes: Fed interest rate hike, expected Arg. peso devaluation, weekly oil build & SA weather.

Arg. Finance Minister announces they will allow the peso to float freely, making their exports more attractive

Weekly EIA report showed a 4.8 mb build in US crude oil stocks versus an expected drop.

Weekly ethanol production increased .7% from LW to 294 mg, 2nd highest weekly on record.

Ethanol stocks rose 2.5% from last week and are up 15.1% versus a year ago.

Corn usage for ethanol estimated @ 105 mb, needs to average 98.4 mb to reach goal.

Ethanol margins for a central IA plant (without oil extraction) est near -.05, worst since March.

Yesterday’s NOPA report showed the slowest Nov crush since 2011 (traders expected a record).

JP Morgan views Ag as “dismal & unlikely to pick up until at least 2018”.  Not an optimistic day all around

 

December 16, 2015