July 5 Grain Commentary

Corn

CBOT Prices Two Rivers Cash Bid Prices
Jul ‘16 344’0 -9’0 July ‘16 304’0 -11’0
Sep ‘16 350’6 -9’2 Aug ‘16 313’0 -7’0
Dec ‘16 358’0 -9’0 NC ‘16 310’0 -9’0
Mar ‘17 367’4 -8’4 Dec ‘17 322’0 -9’0

 

Soybeans

CBOT Prices Two Rivers Cash Bid Prices
Jul ‘16 1117’0 -51’6 July ‘16 1031’0 -60’0
Aug ‘16 1110’0 -54’2      
Sep ‘16 1091’4 -57’2      
Nov ‘16 1077’2 -60’2 NC ‘16 1006’0 -61’0

 

A bigger sell-off than most had anticipated with Dec corn gapping lower, making new contract lows.

Soybeans also gapping lower with November testing the June lows; Dec wheat to new contract lows.

However, wheat actually finished higher at the close. Bargain hunters likely stepping in

Favorable weather, “risk-off” trade / Brexit fears & spillover pressure from China all bearish.

Commodities, especially the ag sector down sharply in China following friendly economic news.

China had the strongest services growth in 11 months; additional stimulus unlikely.

Brexit fears also on the forefront as the pound drops to another fresh low vs the dollar.

Export inspections solid for corn @ 45.9 mb, beans @ 7 mb and wheat 20.6 mb.

Feed / Res usage for the 1st three quarters of this year was 4.585 bb, down 4.1% from LY.

4th Q feed use needs to reach 665 mb (largest since 08-09) to reach USDA goal; LY was 542.

Panama Canal expansion lowers transit time to Japan by 30-35% for ships previously too large.

FBI findings suggest no reasonable prosecutor should file charges against Hillary.

 

 

July 5 Grain Commentary